The Consequences of Dealing with Iran Diplomatically

In 2003, President Khatami offered a broad peace proposal to the US. He was rebuffed. The next election, Ahmedinejad was elected president.

The previous president, while perhaps correct in assessing Iran’s ambitions, was successful in two things: making Iran the most powerful player in Iraq; and consolidating Iranian – and all Muslim – public opinion against the US. The president of Iran could use his own propaganda to cultivate a nationalist fervor that suppressed internal opposition in his own country.

Iran is a deeply divided country. As the riots indicate, change is on the way against the mullahs. A good way to empower the theocrats, however, is to take a threatening stance against them.

I believe that the consequence of Obama taking a softer, yet clear, stance toward Iran is the unleashing of the Iranian opposition. Without America acting like the great Satan, the hard-line element in Iran loses it’s greatest ally: an aggressive USA.

But if Israel or the USA bombed Iran, it would be the greatest gift for Ahmedinejad and the revolutionary guard. All they know is war, and are egging for a fight.

Obama knows that the real battle is not the USA vs. Muslims. Right now, it is really Muslims against Muslims.

We are a side show. Best to stay out of the way and watch the wheels of progress turn.

From an Iranian human rights advocacy group:

American policy makers will feel the need to react. But they need to remember this isn’t about us. This is about Iran and Iranians seeking the right to determine their own future. The United States can help little and harm much by interjecting itself into the process. The Obama administration’s approach to the election — keeping its comments low-key and not signaling support for any candidate — was exactly the right approach. While tempting, empty and self-serving rhetorical support for Iranians struggling for more freedoms serves only to aid their opponents. History has made Iran wary of foreign meddling, and American policy-makers in particular must be sensitive to giving hardliners any pretense to call reform-minded Iranians foreign agents. That’s why Iran’s most prominent reformers, including Nobel-laureate Shirin Ebadi, have said the best thing the U.S. can do is step back and let Iran’s indigenous human rights movement progress on its own, without overt involvement from the U.S–however well intentioned.

What were the real results? Here.

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Obama’s Skillz

Politico notes that Obama seems to be skating through Republican Rage. Here are eleven reasons Obama has so far been successful in managing the various thunderstorms around his presidency.

1) Don’t spend political capital on losing battles. Gun control is a losing battle. The “fairness doctrine” is a losing battle. Don’t fret or worry about it.
2) Let others spend their political capital first. For example, let the army spend political capital on same-sex marriages. Get outside organizations to make suggestions first.
3) Enact “low hanging fruit.” Change policies that don’t require a lot of input from outside bodies or authorities. Structure internal procedures differently. This opens up spaces for political action to change.
4) Have a clear sense of role. The president isn’t going to pass legislation. The president can change executive orders. Sometimes all the president is doing is shaking hands. Other times the executive is describing a vision.
5) Stay cool. Michell Malkin likes to get hot and wants the president to declare “we don’t negotiate with terrorists.” In the movies, that’s a great sentiment. But as Obama notes:
6) Success speaks louder than words.
7) State the vision, loudly, forcefully.
8) Speak their language. This means talking the language of responsibility and caring; not just numbers. He speaks as “compassionate conservatives” spoke, with authority.
9) No permanent enemies. It’s just politics. He listens, though he might not agree.
10) Be conservative, until work needs to be done. For example, don’t legalize pot until there is a practical opening for change. Work within the institutions available. The “conservative temperament” looks like a virtue peculiar to our time and age: patience.
11) Obama does his homework.

Obama is the master gardener-politician of our age. He is right now, just planting the seeds he can. His style will be the model for leadership for many generations.

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Obama as a Leader

Obama won the stimulus package, which was passed in a perfectly partisan way. I want to note a couple things about his leadership style.

Obama is doing what a strong leader does. Stay connected. State what you believe. Listen respectfully. He understands that the primary way to defeat slackers, freeloaders and complainers is to listen to those who are honest and trustworthy.

For example, by inviting leaders over for cocktails, by simply addressing the Republicans, contacting foreign leaders, appointing special envoys, Obama demonstrates courage and respect. The community organizer’s rule is there are no permanent enemies. He should know that he is not going to get Republicans to back him. It is enough if he simply creates a culture where work gets done.

Republicans seem to be digging their own grave. Obama’s popularity has been increasing over the country. By telling Citi not to purchase a personal jet, by speaking directly to the common concerns of the people, chastising the elite for their entitlements, he’s conveying to the voters that he cares and he’s in charge.

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Daily Show Reports on Obama’s Church Hunting

The Daily Show does a piece on Obama’s Church Hunting. Church of the Epiphany is featured.

I think Fr. Charles is hilarious. He’s a ham.

I think Obama will choose St. John’s. It’s easy to get to, and Fr. Leon is a former community organizer.

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